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Forecasting 2003
February 13, 2003 - Chris Hartjes
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Michael, it looks to me like the method you are describing seems (to me any way) to be very similar to the new PECOTA system that the guys over at Baseball Prospectus are now pushing. It compares players to similar players in order to try and figure out a projection, then displaying those results ranked by percentile groups. It gives them a way to project potential breakouts or slumps.
Now, I'm not a shill for BP but the system does look interesting. Can't wait to read BP2003 and see a more in-depth look at it.
Sabermetrics Crackpot Index (August 29, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 12:05 p.m.,
August 29, 2003
(#10) -
Chris Hartjes
(homepage)
RossCW is so obviously a troll, but I'll bite. Baseball "wisdom" is not always right, and "back-of-the-envelope calculations" aren't always right either.
Bill James is one of those guys who (rightly so) says "Baseball wisdom says X is true. Here's why I think that X is not true, and here are the numbers to prove it." Case in point is his excellent essay in either the New Historical Abstract or Win Shares (I can't remember which one) where he shows what he feels are optimal uses of a team's ace reliever.